Obama is the Weaker Opponent; Stop Helping Clinton
Quinnipiac has a new poll that confirms what I’ve been saying: McCain does better against Obama in FL, OH, and PA than against Clinton. These are crucial states if we want to get to the magic number. I’ve been skeptical from the beginning of cross-over and media efforts to support Clinton. Sure, we want the Democratic contest to continue, but we don’t actually want Clinton to win, do we? Look:
- Florida: Clinton tops McCain 49 – 41 percent; McCain gets 44 percent to Obama’s 43 percent;
- Ohio: Clinton beats McCain 48 – 38 percent; McCain gets 43 percent to Obama’s 42 percent;
- Pennsylvania: Clinton tops McCain 51 – 37 percent; Obama leads McCain 47 – 38 percent.
Now, lets not get too bent out of shape about the exact numbers. That’s all subject to change in the general. The important point is that Clinton does better than Obama in these three key states, due largely to Obama’s inability to connect with working-class white voters. That weakness is not going away (not least because “bittergate” is going to make ferocious ads in these states).
It’s time to stop playing around with this and conjecturing about a hypothetical Democratic crackup that may not even happen. If we can count to 270, the Democratic superdelegates can too. Why mess around with this? Why tempt fate?
[For the moment this is not cross-posted at Ace’s. Mu.nu is down (again).]